Ontario could be far off its housing supply targets for years to come, according to the province’s new fiscal plan.
Housing start numbers in Ontario’s 2025 budget show new home builds are projected to remain thousands of units below what’s needed to reach the Ford government’s target of 1.5 million new homes by 2031.
The target, announced in 2022, followed a recommendation from the province’s Ontario Housing Affordability Task Force that said building 1.5 million new homes in 10 years would help address residential supply shortages and housing costs amid a growing population.
Numbers in the new budget show Ontario had around 74,600 housing starts in 2024 and the province is projecting just 71,800 this year. That’s less than half the approximately 150,000 new homes per year target needed to reach the government’s goal.
“We're not going to relent in trying to achieve that goal,” Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy told reporters Thursday. He added that tariffs have impacted housing starts “a lot” in Ontario and across the world.
In 2023, the government said it met its yearly housing target of 110,000 homes in part by including around 9,800 beds in long-term care homes.
The 2025 budget document says dimmer housing start forecasts are due to potential tariff impacts on building material costs and supply chains.
Housing start numbers released in the province’s Fall Economic Statement last year showed signs that new home construction was slowing prior to tariff threats.
The fall statement forecasted around 81,300 housing starts last year, which is about 6,700 more than what was actually built in 2024, according to the 2025 budget document.
In 2026, the province is now forecasting around 74,800 housing starts. That’s about 20,000 fewer housing starts than what was estimated in the fall statement.
“The Conservatives, quite frankly, have thrown in the towel on housing with this budget,” NDP finance critic Jessica Bell told reporters Thursday.
Bell also accused the government of creating a “bandaid budget, with no plan, no real urgency and no help for people who need it most right now.”
The budget includes a number of housing-related spending measures, including a $400 million boost to help municipalities with infrastructure like drinking water and sewer management projects.
Current investments in water-related municipal infrastructure will help build as many as 600,000 new homes, according to the province.
The budget also has a commitment to spend $50 million over five years to boost modular home manufacturing capacity in the province. Modular homes are dwellings that can be built in factories and then transported to their end location.
The 2025 budget was preceded by Housing Minister Rob Flack introducing new legislation the government says will help build homes more quickly, in part, by changing development charges.
Bill 17, if passed, would defer development charges until a project is occupied, something provincial officials say will help with builders’ cash flows.
Development charges, which cities have used for years to build and maintain infrastructure, were not lowered in the bill for most housing projects.
If passed, Flack’s legislation would, however, block cities from collecting development charges for building new long-term care homes.
—With files from Jesmeen Gill
